78002 Statistical demography, 6-8 op

Lecturer

Juha Alho

Credits

6 credits (op).

Type

Course 78002. Special course in advanced studies. The course can be extended to 8 op. by doing on empirical assignment or a theoretical study of some special aspect.

Contents

The course provides an introduction demographic (population) processes from a statistical point of view. Maximum likelihood is applied to derive estimators of demographic rates. Classical renewal theory is reviewed and the theory of stable populations is developed.  This course has a special empirical topic that varies. In 2014 the topic is mortality forecasting. Data from the Human Mortality Database for the EU countries will be modeled using different approaches proposed in the literature. Special emphasis is laid on the comparative analysis of male and female mortality patterns. Approximately a half of the lectures will be hands-on sessions in a computer class. R will be used for computation. 

Goals

After the course a student will understand problems of population evolution and vital processes from a statistical point of view.

Pre-requisities and Target Group

It is assumed that a student is familiar with linear regression, generalized linear models and basic models of time-series analysis before taking the course. Similarly, it is assumed that the student is familiar with principles of maximum likelihood inference.

The course is suitable for students taking courses in Statistics or Mathematics at the level of advanced studies. It is also appropriate for researchers working on their doctoral dissertation in applied fields, and for researchers working on demographic problems outside the university.

Lectures

Period 4,  March 11  – May 8, 2014.

Lectures are on Tuesdays and Wednesdays at 10-12.  

Location: Exactum B120.


Course requirements

Lectures and exercises (24 h)

For 6 op. computer assignments on mortality modeling  and theory exercises. For 8 op. add a deeper empirical assignment or a theory exam.

References

Selected articles and book sections.

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