# Statistical methods in medicine and epidemiology, fall 2012

### EVIRA, kurssimateriaalia, 2013

Luennot (osa II): http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/epid12/luento2_EVIRA_v2.pdf

Luennot (osa I):

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/evira2013/luento1_EVIRA.pdf (kokonaan)

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/evira2013/Relative_rates.pdf (sivut 10-14 ja 16-18)

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/evira2013/Confounding.pdf (sivut 1-11)

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/evira2013/poissonregression.pdf (sivut 1-8)

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/evira2013/logisticregression.pdf (sivut 1-11)

### News

The exam papers (2nd course exam) are available in the lecture's shelf in the post room (3rd floor, C wing); you need

to ask someone to open to door. The lecturer is also available on Thursday (January 17), at 4 p.m. by the

lecture hall (B120). If needed, you can also contact the lecturer directly by e-mail

(kari.auranen 'at' thl.fi) for any information.

The last lecture is on Tuesday (December 11). Those interested

can convene for a review discussion of the course. No new material

will be presented.

The second course exam is on Thursday, December 13, at 4 p.m. (until 7 p.m.; class room B120). Note that the exam starts at 4 p.m. sharp.

The topics covered in the exam are as follows:

Lectures 14-21. Exercises 6-10 (you wont't be asked to write actual R code!)

Chapters in the textbook: 12, 17.3-17.4, 21-22, 23.1-23.3, 24-26, 29, 30.

### Lecturer

### Scope

5-10 cu.

The course has two parts, 5+5 cr, periods I and II. It is possible to take only part I (5 cr, weeks 36-42).

### Type

Fall 2012 program will be added here later.

See the previous program: http://wiki.helsinki.fi/display/mathstatKurssit/Statistical+methods+in+medicine+and+epidemiology%2C+fall+2011

### Prerequisites

Basics in statistical inference are helpful but not absolutely necessary.

### Lectures

Weeks 36-42 and 44-50, Tuesday 16-18 and Thursday 16-18 in room B120. Two hours of exercise classes per week (Thursday 18-20, the room to be annouced).

### Exams

The first course exam is on Thursday, October 18, at 4 p.m. (until 7 p.m.; class room B120). Note that the exam starts at 4 p.m. sharp.

The topics covered in the exam are as follows:

Lectures 1-13. Exercises 1-5. Chapters in the textbook: 1-11, 13-14, 15 (except 15.4-15.5), 16.1-16.3, 17.1-17.2, 18 (except 18.2), 19.

The second course exam is on Thursday, December 13, at 4 p.m. (until 7 p.m.; class room B120). Note that the exam starts at 4 p.m. sharp.

The topics covered in the exam are as follows:

Lectures 14-21. Exercises 6-10 (you wont't be asked to write actual R code!; Exercise 9 will be published later on Monday, Dec 10).

Chapters in the textbook: 12, 17.3-17.4, 21-22, 23.1-23.3, 24-26, 29, 30.

### Bibliography

Clayton and Hills: Statistical Models in Epidemiology, Oxford University Press.

### Registration

Did you forget to register? What to do.

### Lecture summaries

1. Binary model.Conditional probability.Bayes formula /Chapters 1 and 2)

2. Likelihood (Chapter 3)

3. Estimation of survival. Hazard function (Chapters 4 and 5)

4. Time. Censoring. Competing risks

5. Approximating likelihood functions. Statistical paradigms

6. lecture. We continued with the material from the previous lecture.

7. lecture, part I (P values)

7. lecture, part II (P values continued)

8. lecture (Estimation of relative rates)

9. lecture (Confounding; The proportional hazards model; Stratification)

10. lecture. We continued with the material from the previous lecture.

11. Case-control studies

12. Case-control studies contnued

13. lecture. We reviewed some overlooked material

from earlier lectures. An example of a course exam is introduced

14. Sample size (Chapter 21)

15. Part I: Logistic regression (Chapters 22 and 23)

15. Part II: Poisson regression (Chapters 22 and 23)

16. Hypothesis testing. Interaction (Chapter 24)

17. Model choice (Chapter 25)

18. We continued with the material from previous lectures

19. Small samples (Chapter 12)

20. Two articles were discussed:

Article 1

Article 2

21.Article 3 (Chapter 17.3-17.4)

Article 4

Notes on article 3

### Exercises

1. Exercise

Answers to exercise 1

2. Exercise

atresia.dat The data matrix has 4 columns: individual ID, age at diagnosis, age at death or censoring,

failure indicator (1=death/0=censoring)

Answers to exercise 2

3. Exercise

Answers to exercise 3

4. Exercise

Answers to exercise 4

Exercise 5

Answers to Exercise 5

Exercise 6

Answers to Exercise 6

Exercise 7

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/epid12/confidenceintervals.R

Exercise 8 (A hands-on exercise on Thursday, November 15, room C128)

Exercise 10 (Thursday, November 29)

### Data sets

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/epid12/BCG.dat

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/epid12/BCGcasecontrol.dat

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/epid12/BCGmatched.dat

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/epid12/CHD.dat

http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~kja/epid12/doseresponse.dat

### Exercise groups

Group | Day | Time | Place | Instructor |
---|---|---|---|---|

1. | Thu | 18-20 | B120 | Christopher Solomon |